Mauritius: The seasonal outlook for summer 2023-2024 was the focus of a press conference by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) held yesterday at its headquarters in Vacoas.
The Acting (Ag) Director of the MMS, Dr Pritiviraj Booneeady, and the Deputy Director of the MMS, Dr Kumar Ram Dhurmea, were present.
In a presentation, Dr Booneeady recalled that the summer outlook gives an indication of how summer is going to unfold, adding that the outlook is also important for planning and decision-making. He highlighted that the summer season in the Republic of Mauritius lasts from 01 November to 30 April and the cyclonic season from 01 November to 15 May.
Summer, he said, is often characterised by warmer temperatures, light winds and spells of moderate thundery showers of rain. Mean rainfall over the country is 1,352 mm, which is about 67% of annual rainfall.
He announced that for summer 2023-2024, some 1,225 mm of rainfall is expected (representing 90% of rainfall) and observed that there will be a slight delay in the onset of rainfall from the second week of December.
As for Rodrigues, 95% of rainfall, namely 810 mm of rainfall, is expected. As regards temperatures, he informed that they will be slightly above normal during daytime and night time for both Mauritius and Rodrigues.
Occasionally, the temperature will be 20C to 30C above normal, and the maximum may reach 360C in coastal areas to the west and north, he added. Furthermore, he pointed out that high temperatures coupled with high humidity and light winds may lead to torrid conditions, causing severe discomfort.
Speaking about storms and cyclones, Dr Booneeady said that six to eight storm formations are expected in Mauritius and Rodrigues. Formation, he said, is more conducive to the west of Diego Garcia, and heavy swells generated by storms are likely to impact our coast.
He further stated that any cyclone passing close to the country is likely to cause storm surges, leading to coastal inundation.
As regards the extreme weather scenario in Mauritius and Rodrigues, the Ag Director indicated that global warming will increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events.
He also said that both Mauritius and Rodrigues are expected to experience spells of heavy/violent rain with flash floods, violent thunderstorms, electric storms, mini tornadoes, and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones.
He also spoke about the new Cyclone Warning System, which now includes a Safety Bulletin to lift the cyclone warning class III or class IV and inform the public of the existence of any severe weather conditions associated with the cyclone or other environmental risk, depending on the nature and extent of damage occurred during the passage of the cyclone.
He also informed that a Termination Bulletin is issued following the issue of a cyclone warning class I, class II or a Safety Bulletin, after consultation with the National Crisis Committee to the effect that outdoor risks have considerably decreased.
Dr Booneady also mentioned the other Early Warning Systems in place in case of heavy rain, heavy swell, storm surge and strong wind.